Work in progress
Working papers
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Author: Thiago R. Oliveira
Asked to revise and resubmit, American Journal of Sociology.
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Abstract: Policing approaches that rely on repeated intrusion in the lives of citizens can be accompanied by public cynicism about the ability of legal institutions to ensure public safety. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the dynamics of phenomenon of overpolicing and underpolicing over time. It does so in the context of one of the largest cities in the Global South, with a focus on shifts in support for personal use of violence via diminished perceptions of legitimacy. Drawing upon a three-wave longitudinal survey representative of eight neighborhoods in São Paulo, Brazil, I demonstrate that perceptions of overpolicing and underpolicing (a) mutually reproduce each other over time, (b) vary significantly by neighborhood, (c) increase after aggressive police stops, (d) undermine police legitimacy, and (e) contribute to more favorable attitudes towards the acceptability of violence. This study provides further evidence on the costs of coercive policing, with significant implications for people’s recognition of the ruling power of legal authority.Manuscript available on SocArXiv.
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Author: Thiago R. Oliveira.
Under first review, Journal of Quantitative Criminology.
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Objectives: Test the effects of being stopped by the police and being stopped by the police at gunpoint on three aspects of police trustworthiness (e.g., attitudinal change in perceptions of police fairness, overpolicing, and underpolicing). Disentangle between short-term effects of a recent stop and long-term effects of a first experience of being stopped by the police in several years.
Methods: A three-wave longitudinal survey of residents of São Paulo, Brazil (2015-2019), measured people’s perceptions that officers tend to act with procedural fairness, repeatedly intrude upon the lives of community residents (overpolicing), and fail to ensure public safety (underpolicing), whether they were recently stopped by the police, and whether officers had pointed a gun at them during that stop. Analysis is carried out using a multi-period difference-in-differences design. Two-way fixed effects linear regression, matching for panel data, and doubly robust estimators were used to estimate slightly different causal estimands.
Results: It seems unlikely that police stops damage police trustworthiness over time among São Paulo residents. A recent police stop at gunpoint seems to have a negative short-term effect on perceived police fairness. The first experience of a police stop at gunpoint in several years seems to have a positive long-term effect on perceived overpolicing.
Conclusions: While police stops do not necessarily affect police trustworthiness, aggressive stops at gunpoint seem to affect perceptions of fairness and overpolicing. This study provides causal evidence on the relationship between police contact and attitudinal change and contributes to a growing international literature describing the social costs of aggressive policing strategies.Manuscript available on SocArXiv.
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Legitimacy, trust and legal cynicism: A review of concepts
Authors: Thiago R. Oliveira & Jon Jackson.
Under first review, Tempo Social.
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Abstract. We review the concepts of legitimacy, trust, and legal cynicism in the context the debate about police legitimacy, discuss the extent to which these concepts relate to each other, and offer some early, speculative thoughts on how a relational model of legitimacy can extend beyond procedural justiceconcerns. Relying upon procedural justice theory, we emphasise the distinction between police legitimacy and legitimation: popular legitimacy is defined as public beliefs that legal authority has the right to rule (people acknowledge the moral appropriateness of legal authority) and the authority to govern (people recognise legal authority as the rightful authority), whereas legitimation is related to the criteria people use to judge the normative appropriateness of legal agents’ exercise of power (e.g., the extent to which police officers are trustworthy to behave in accordance with people’s normative expectations). Building on studies on legal cynicism and legal socialisation, we consider how other aspects of police conduct can send negative relational messages about people’s value within society and undermine their judgements about the legitimacy of legal authority –messages of oppression, marginalisation,and neglectover the life course. We conclude suggesting avenues for future research on public-police relations.Manuscript available on SocArXiv.
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Violência como fator socializador na construção da legitimidade da polícia: Um estudo com adolescentes de São Paulo, Brasil
(Violence as a socialising factor shaping police legitimacy: a study with adolescents in São Paulo, Brazil)
Authors: Renan Theodoro, Debora Piccirillo, Aline Gomes, & Thiago R. Oliveira.
Asked to revise and resubmit, Análise Social.
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Abstract. This paper investigates how adolescents are socialised to accept or reject police violence and abuse of power, and how these dispositions influence police legitimacy. Data came from a survey with 724 participants born in 2005, residents of the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Direct and indirect effects of experiences of violence and police contact over adolescents evaluations of police were estimated using structural equation modelling. Results indicate that aggressive and illegal policing, as well as exposure to violence in the neighborhood erode confidence in policing.
Manuscripts in preparation
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Socialization through violence: Exposure to neighborhood and police violence and the development of legal legitimacy among adolescents in São Paulo
Authors: Thiago R. Oliveira, Jon Jackson, Renan Theodoro, Debora Piccirillo, & Rick Trinkner.
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Abstract: We examine the influence of exposure to neighbourhood and police violence on the legal socialisation of adolescents aged 11 to 14 years living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. In a unique context of idiosyncratic and violence policing where the state's ability to control crime is low, we discuss the extent to which being frequently exposed to neighbourhood crime and violence (e.g., listening to gunshots, witnessing or hearing about citizens carrying guns, being robbed, or selling drugs), relatively forcible police behaviour (e.g., police stops or arrests), or aggressive and improper forcible police behaviour (e.g., officers assaulting a member of the public) undermine the development of judgements about the legitimacy of the law. Drawing on data from a cohort-based, four-wave longitudinal survey of 2005-born adolescents living in São Paulo from 2016 to 2019, we use growth curve models to estimate developmental trajectories of legitimacy beliefs. Results indicate that exposure to police brutality can damage the process of legal socialisation, and that adolescents who study at schools where most other students are frequently exposed to neighbourhood violence tend to develop more antagonist views about the authority of the law. -
Economic inequality and the spatial distribution of stops and searches: evidence from London
Authors: Joel Suss & Thiago R. Oliveira.
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Abstract: We study the spatial distribution of stops and searches in London in 2019, and assess the extent to which salient, spatially-granular economic inequality is associated with a higher concentration of searches net of previous crime rates and spatial effects. We interpret stop and search as a tool of social control and demonstrate the degree to which economic inequality contributes to filter out locations where members of the public might stopped and searched by police officers. We use data at the level of Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) and draw on a novel measure of local inequality based on real and estimated housing values. Our analytic strategy involves estimating Spatial Durbin Models to account for spatial dependency and negative binomial regression models to estimate the number of stops and searches by LSOA. Results suggest that local economic inequality is strongly associated with the number of stops and searches, even taking into account spatial effects and previous crime rates. We also find that the effect of inequality depends on the level of affluence: the better off a location is, the stronger the effect of inequality on police stops and searches. We conclude by extending the cultural meaning of stop and search as a tool of social control. Police decisions regarding where to stop and search members of the public could be an additional mechanism that contributes to high levels of ethnic and social disproportionality in stop and search. -
Self-legitimacy and commitment to democratic policing in Brazil: assessing the support for police militarization among São Paulo military police officers
Authors: Viviane Cubas, Frederico Castelo Branco, Thiago R. Oliveira, & Justice Tankebe.
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Abstract: To what extent do police officers who are confident of their own authority support (or oppose) police militarization? Previous work has established possible links between police officers’ self-legitimacy and their commitment to democratic policing, which is based on principles of citizen participation, equity and responsiveness. Understood as the process through which policing activities take more and more characteristics of the military culture and behavior, police militarization premises on the idea that police officers should be trained as if they were going to war. Based on this nearly diametrical distinction and given the positive association found between self-legitimacy and commitment to democratic policing, we ask whether self-legitimacy is negatively associated with support for police militarization. Using data from a survey of officers from the São Paulo Military Police in 2016, we assess the extent to which measures of self-legitimacy are correlated with such support controlling for agents’ identification with military values – we also assess the extent to which self-legitimacy mediates the effects or other variables on support for police militarization, such as perceived public support and perceived distributive justice within the organization. Results of structural equation models indicate that while identification with military values mediate some statistical effects of perception of work environment on support for police militarization, self-belief in authority vested in them does not. -
Pastas e prontuários do “Complexo do Tatuapé” (São Paulo/SP – 1990-2006): alterações nos padrões da justiça juvenil após o ECA
(Records from the Tatuapé Complex (São Paulo/SP - 1990-2006): juvenile justice’s changing patterns after ECA)
Authors: Thiago R. Oliveira, Bruna Gisi, & Marcos César Alvarez
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Abstract: