Work in progress

Working papers

• Dynamics and consequences of the overpolicing-underpolicing paradox in Brazil’s largest city

  Author: Thiago R. Oliveira

  Under review at Law and Society Review

  See abstract

  Abstract: Residents of some neighborhoods often experience an overwhelming police presence that intrudes upon their lives, and yet feel unprotected by law enforcement agents who neglect safety provision, in a process named by the literature the overpolicing-underpolicing paradox. In the context of one of the largest cities in the Global South, this study provides a quantitative assessment of the dynamics and consequences of public expectations of overpolicing and underpolicing. Drawing upon a three-wave longitudinal survey representative of eight neighborhoods in São Paulo, Brazil, I demonstrate that perceptions of overpolicing and underpolicing (a) mutually reproduce each other over time, (b) share similar correlates, most notably related to exposure to structural disadvantage and aggressive police stops, (c) harm legitimacy judgements by sending negative relational messages of marginalization and neglect, and (d) contribute to increased levels of tolerance of violence via undermined legitimacy beliefs. This study provides further evidence that the demand for public safety in disadvantaged communities does not seem to be solved by policing strategies centered around the increase of coercive police presence, and highlights the relevance of investigating public-authority relations in understudied Global South settings.
  Keywords: overpolicing-underpolicing paradox, legal cynicism, legitimacy, violence, Brazil

  Manuscript available on SocArXiv.

  Replication materials here.

• Socialization through violence: Exposure to neighborhood and police violence and the developmental trajectories of legal legitimacy beliefs among adolescents in São Paulo

  Authors: Thiago R. Oliveira, Jon Jackson, Renan Theodoro, Debora Piccirillo, & Rick Trinkner.

  Under review at Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency

  See abstract

  Abstract:
  Objectives: Examine the legal socialization of adolescents aged 11 to 14 years in São Paulo, Brazil, a city characterized by a high prevalence of police violence and organized crime. Assess the extent to which exposure to neighborhood and police violence and aggression influence adolescents’ developmental trajectories of beliefs about the legitimacy of the law.
  Methods: A four-wave longitudinal survey of 2005-born adolescents living in São Paulo was fielded annually between 2016 and 2019 and measured respondents’ perceptions of legal legitimacy, exposures to neighborhood and police violence, and police contact. Adopting a life- course approach, developmental trajectories are estimated using quadratic latent growth curve models.
  Results: Witnessing police officers assaulting a suspect, being involuntarily stopped by the police, and seeing people selling drugs on the street are all negatively associated with changes in legal legitimacy beliefs. Exposure to gunshots, gun-carrying, or robberies are not associated with changes in legitimacy beliefs.
  Conclusions: Indicating that adolescents in São Paulo are socialized through violence, exposure to police violence and proximity to organized crime could undermine their development of legal legitimacy beliefs. Exposure to other episodes of neighborhood violence might be too frequent in this context and do not distinguish adolescents’ developmental trajectories of legitimacy beliefs.
  Keywords: legal socialization, violence exposure, legitimacy of the law, police violence, Brazil

  Manuscript available on SocArXiv.

  Replication materials here.

• Did the murder of George Floyd damage public perceptions of police and law in the United States?

  Authors: Adam Fine, Thiago R. Oliveira, Jonathan Jackson, Ben Bradford, Rick Trinkner, & Krisztian Posch.

  Under review at Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency

  See abstract

  Abstract:
  Objectives: Police murdered George Floyd in May of 2020. It is important to understand the dynamics underpinning public trust and the legitimacy of legal authorities. Yet, no longitudinal study has examined the effects of the murder and social movement on the public’s perceptions.
  Methods: This four-state longitudinal study (N = 1048; Arizona, Michigan, New York, and Texas) examined the public’s perceptions of the police and law both before and after the police murder of George Floyd.
  Results: Using five outcome markers for perceptions of police and the law, as well as three pseudo-placebo comparison variables, the results indicated that the public’s perceptions of police and law, but not levels of trust in science, identification with healthcare workers, and collective efficacy, declined following Floyd’s murder.
  Conclusions: Implications for policing and society are discussed considering this longitudinal, within- person study found no changes in the public’s perceptions of the pseudo- placebo variables, declines in the public’s perceptions of the law’s legitimacy, and declines almost twice that size in the public’s perceptions of the police in the period immediately after Floyd’s murder.
  Keywords: Procedural justice, police perceptions, police brutality

• Legal cynicism and the enduring legacy of cumulative exposures to police misconduct

  Authors: Thiago R. Oliveira, David S. Kirk, Charles C. Lanfear, & Robert J. Sampson.

  See abstract

  Abstract: Research shows that civilian exposure to inappropriate police behavior can foster cynicism and distrust of the law, which in turn can propel some individuals towards alternative measures besides relying upon the police to resolve their problems and conflicts. Particularly in structurally disadvantaged and racially segregated neighborhoods where crime often concentrates, the historical legacy of police mistreatment against poor communities of color might become part of the collective memory of residents, fostering long-lasting cynicism about the law and the legal institutions. This study will take a historical view and investigate the long-term effects of cumulative exposures to abusive policing practices during childhood and adolescence among adults who spent at least part of their childhood and adolescence in Chicago. We will explore three closely related questions: (1) to what extent are there racial and ethnic differences in cumulative neighborhood exposures to police misconduct and use-of-force among children and adolescents?; (2) do cumulative neighborhood exposures to police misconduct and use-of-force during childhood and adolescence have long-term consequences in terms of people's views about the law and the legal institutions during adulthood, above and beyond the potential effect of recent exposures to abusive policing practices?; (3) is prior exposure to police misconduct during childhood and adolescence associated with carrying a concealed handgun and household gun ownership in adulthood, and if so, are the relationships mediated by cynicism of the law? (4) finally, to what extent are any racial and ethnic gaps in concealed gun carrying and household gun ownership explained by cumulative exposures to police misconduct and use-of-force during childhood and adolescence? We propose linking data on civilian complaints about police misconduct and use of force in Chicago neighborhoods in the 1990s and early 2000s with longitudinal survey data representative of three birth cohorts residing in Chicago in 1995 and followed for over 25 years (1995-2021). Analysis will be carried out assessing the association between the duration of neighborhood cumulative exposures to police misconduct among White, Black, and Hispanic study participants during their childhood and adolescence in the 1990s and early 2000s and their contemporary perceptions of the law and the legal institutions in 2021.
  Keywords: police misconduct, legal cynicism, police use-of-force, neighborhood processes, violence

  Pregistration availble at OSF Registries https://osf.io/xgeyn.