Policing, legal estrangement, and the reproduction of social inequality

European Society of Criminology | September 2026

Thiago R. Oliveira

University of Manchester

Does stop and search contribute to the reproduction of social inequality?

Stop and search in England and Wales

Data and methods

Data

 

Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)

 

  • Longitudinal cohort study
  • Around 19,000 children born in the UK in 2000
  • Eight sweeps of data collection, from infancy to age 23
  • Comprehensive data on social, economic, and health outcomes across the life course

 

\(\leadsto\) Linkage of MCS respondents’ residential history with stop and search records from England & Wales&

Research questions

 

Two exposure variables
(measured during adolescence):

 

  1. Individual experiences with involuntary police stops
  2. Cumulative neighbourhood exposure to stop and search

Four outcome variables
(measured at age 23):

 

  1. Educational performance
  2. Highest educational qualification
  3. Receiving government benefits
  4. Intention to vote in the next general election

Measures

 

  • Police stop experiences during adolescence

Have you ever been stopped and questioned by the police? (yes/no)
- Measured at age 17
- Respondents who had previously, at age 14, reported being stopped and questioned by the police were excluded from the analysis

Measures

  • Educational performance

MCS point score using interpolated scoring system (\(0-120\))
- Scale capturing total GCSE points

  • Educational attainment

Highest qualification degree obtained by age 23
- Levels 1 through 8

  • Benefits

Whether respondent receives any benefits at age 23 (yes/no)

  • Intention to vote

Likelihood to vote in the next general elections (\(0-10\))

Some descriptive insights

Covariates included

 

  • Ethnicity
  • Gender
  • Parents’ qualifications
  • Self-reported perceptions of neighbourhood safety (age 14)
  • Previous offending behaviour (age 14)
  • Previous risk-taking behaviour (age 14)
  • Previous victimisation (age 14)
  • Self-reported educational motivation (age 14)
  • Conduct problems (parent-reported, age 14)
  • Emotional symptoms (parent-reported, age 14)
  • Hyperactivity and inattention (parent-reported, age 14)
  • Peer problems (parent-reported, age 14)
  • Prosocial scores (parent-reported, age 14)

Results

Results: Educational performance

Survey-weighted linear regression controlling for parents’ qualifications, self conception, area safety, previous offending, risk-taking behaviour, victimisation, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, hyperactivity and inattention, peer problems, prosocial scores, gender, and ethnicity. \(N=5,931\).

Exposed respondents report MCS point scores 4.37 points lower than non-exposed respondents

Results: Educational attainment

Survey-weighted ordinal logistic regression controlling for parents’ qualifications, self conception, area safety, previous offending, risk-taking behaviour, victimisation, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, hyperactivity and inattention, peer problems, prosocial scores, gender, and ethnicity. \(N=3,687\).

Odds of higher qualification among exposed respondents 38% lower than non-exposed respondents

Results: Employment/financial stability

Survey-weighted binomial logistic regression controlling for parents’ qualifications, self conception, area safety, previous offending, risk-taking behaviour, victimisation, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, hyperactivity and inattention, peer problems, prosocial scores, gender, and ethnicity. \(N=5,931\).

Odds of receiving benefits among exposed respondents 65% higher than non-exposed respondents

Results: Political and civic engagement

Survey-weighted linear regression controlling for parents’ qualifications, self conception, area safety, previous offending, risk-taking behaviour, victimisation, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, hyperactivity and inattention, peer problems, prosocial scores, gender, and ethnicity. \(N=5,931\).

Exposed respondents report scores (likelihood to vote) 0.49 points lower than non-exposed respondents

So what?

Next steps

 

  • Finish linking MCS residential history with stop and search records from

Create a measure of cumulative neighbourhood exposure to stop and search during adolescence

Marginal structural models with residual balancing to assess cumulative effects

Focus on the vicarious marginalisation and structural exclusion mechanisms highlighted by the legal estrangement framework

Final thoughts

Does stop and search contribute to the reproduction of social inequality?

  • Not a theory-testing exercise

But results are consistent with empirical implications of the legal estrangement framework

  • Focus on objective experiences of social exclusion

  • People who have had police stop experiences during adolescence are more likely to have

    • educational damage
    • more employment and financial instability
    • lower engagement with political and civic duties

Thank you!


thiago.oliveira@manchester.ac.uk

ThiagoROliveira.com

@oliveiratr.bsky.social


Funded by the ESRC Vulnerability and Policing Futures
(Early Career Development Fund)

References

Bell, Monica C. 2017. “Police Reform and the Dismantling of Legal Estrangement.” The Yale Law Journal, 2054–150.